Boosting Africa’s Rice Sector: A research for development strategy 2011–2020

Executive summary

Rice consumption in Africa is increasing rapidly because of changes in consumer preferences and urbanization. In 2009, the continent imported one-third of what is available on the world market, costing an estimated US$ 5 billion. As witnessed by the food crisis in 2008, this is a very risky, expensive and unsustainable situation, and it may lead to severe food insecurity and civil instability in some African countries. Soaring and highly volatile rice prices and relatively low levels of global rice stocks are predicted to remain the norm over the next 10 years. However, Africa has the human, physical and economic resources to produce enough rice to feed itself. This document presents a Rice Research for Development Strategy to realize Africa’s tremendous rice potential. It has been carefully designed to contribute to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Africa — notably MDG1 (halving poverty and hunger), MDG3 (promoting gender equality and empowering women) and MDG7 (greater environmental sustainability). The strategy is aligned with the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), in particular pillar IV which aims to improve agricultural research and systems to ensure successful uptake of appropriate new technologies.

The critical challenge facing the African rice sector is to enhance performance in production, processing and marketing to respond to a major concern to be turned into an opportunity: the growing demand for rice as a preferred staple. The research-for-development strategy presented here pursues the following vision of success reflecting the CGIAR system-level outcomes.

Improving food security

By 2020, sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) rice paddy production will have increased from 18.4 million tonnes (Mt) (11.9 Mt of milled rice) in 2010 to 46.8 Mt (30.4 Mt of milled rice), with the productivity-enhancing research and development activities described in this strategy. Without this productivity-enhancing R&D, the baseline levels of paddy production under the ‘baseline scenario’ (projecting each country’s production on the basis of 1980–2010 growth rates) would be 32.3 Mt (21.0 Mt milled equivalent) in 2020. Thus, the research and its associated technology dissemination activities proposed in this strategy will result in a rice production increase of 14.5 Mt of paddy (9.4 Mt of milled rice), corresponding to a 44.9% increase over the baseline scenario.

Aggregated rice consumption is projected to rise from 19.8 Mt in 2010 to 35.0 Mt by 2020 under the baseline scenario (using each country’s rice consumption growth rate for the period 1980–2010). Thus, under the baseline scenario (i.e. no R&D), SSA would import roughly 14.0 Mt of milled rice in 2020 to fill the gap between projected consumption and projected production. However, with the proposed productivity-enhancing R&D and the production increase it will generate, imports will be only 4.6 Mt in 2020 corresponding to a reduction of 67%. This should lead to an increase in the continental rice self-sufficiency ratio from the current level of 60% to at least 87% in 2020 (compared to 60% in the baseline scenario).

In 2010, no SSA country was self-sufficient in rice, but as a result of the R&D proposed in this strategy, at least 10 countries will reach self-sufficiency with surplus rice (Chad, DRC, Guinea, Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda). The self-sufficiency ratio will significantly increase for all other SSA countries by 2020. Furthermore, many more countries should reach near rice self-sufficiency (over 90%) by 2020.

Reducing rural and urban poverty

The estimated potential impact of research targeted to reduce the yield gap and increase grain quality through better crop management and postharvest practices, and to raising the yield potential through higher-yielding varieties is an annual income benefit of $1.09 billion for rice farmers, corresponding to a global cumulative 5%-discounted benefit of $6.8 billion over the 7-year period 2014–2020. As a consequence, at least 2.3 million people in rice-farming households will be lifted above the $1.25 poverty line (in 2005 purchasing power parity, PPP) in 2014. This number will grow to 4.2 million people lifted out of poverty by the end of 2020.

As a result of increased rice supply, domestic prices in major rice-producing countries in SSA are expected to be on average 7.2% lower than the baseline level.* Translating this price effect, it is expected that annual expenditure on rice by non-rice-farming consumers under the $1.25 poverty line will be reduced by $650.6 million (PPP) by 2020 (holding consumption constant), corresponding to a global cumulative 5%-discounted benefit of $3.3 billion. This will equate to 6.8 million urban and rural rice consumers (excluding rice-producing farmers) being lifted above the $1.25 poverty line in 2020.

By improving rice processing technologies and reducing losses, it is expected that the quality of locally produced rice will be increased, generating more revenue for rice processors and rice traders. These benefits are estimated at $64.2 million annually (cumulative 5%-discounted, $323.7 million) for rice processors and $30.8 million annually (cumulative 5%-discounted, $155.3 million) for rice traders.

In total, the potential impact of research across all value-chain actors (farmers, consumers, processors and traders) will be $1.8 billion annually, with a global cumulative 5%-discounted benefit of $10.6 billion over the 7-year period 2014–2020 for 38 SSA rice-producing countries. At least 11 million people will be lifted out of poverty in 2020 as a result of these income benefits, thus reducing the overall number of poor by 4%.

The costs of the R&D include the Global Rice Science Partnership budget for Africa for the period 2011–2015 and a forecasted value for 2016–2020 — about $420 million (cumulative for 2011–2020). It also includes indirect costs of dissemination of the technologies (estimated from various past projects at about $1.2 billion). The financial rate of return for all research activities within the period 2011–2020 is estimated at 84% and the economic rate of return (assuming 20% price distortion) is 60%, showing that rice research in Africa is financially and economically profitable. The share of rice in the agricultural gross domestic product of African countries should increase from the current 3.82% to 5.19% in 2020. This corresponds to a 26.5% increase from the baseline scenario, which assumes that the agricultural GDP will maintain its current trend. With R&D on rice in Africa, it is expected that the agricultural GDP growth will increase from the baseline scenario value of 2.5% to 2.65%. Thus, R&D on rice in Africa will contribute to achieving the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) target of 6% per year agricultural growth.

Reducing undernutrition

It is anticipated that the improved purchasing power generated by the uptake of improved rice technologies will help undernourished people in Africa to be able to afford to reach caloric sufficiency and more balanced diets. As a result of increased availability and reduced prices, 5.6 million undernourished people will reach caloric sufficiency in SSA (1.2 million in rice-farming households and 4.4 million in non-rice-farming consumer households), reducing the number of food-insecure by 6%. Sustainable diversification of rice-based systems will provide greater access to more diversified agricultural products, with a positive influence on human health and nutrition. Quantification of these benefits will rely on quality baseline data and well-designed impact studies.

Sustainable management of natural resources

By 2020, water, nutrient and labor efficiencies will have been improved in high-input systems through the introduction of mechanization, precision crop management options and water-saving and water-harvesting techniques, thereby reducing yield gaps. Uptake of ecological intensification and diversification options in currently low-input rainfed systems will have enhanced production levels in a sustainable manner. New rice-based production systems ‘ready for the future’ will have been developed with farmers to respond to the challenge of climate change and increasing water scarcity across rice ecologies. Africa’s contribution to the collection, preservation and characterization of the genetic diversity of rice species will have substantially increased and been made available to all. Quantification of these benefits will rely on quality baseline data and well-designed impact studies.

Capacity development

By 2020, research capacity in Africa will have increased through PhD and MSc fellowships (at least 30 per year, of which at least one-third will be awarded to female candidates, a percentage that was already achieved by AfricaRice in 2010) and training in specific areas through internships and group training. Every year, a minimum of 100 technicians from national agricultural research systems (NARS), NGOs and development projects working on rice will be involved in 1–2 month rice-production training courses. These trained technicians will act as trainers for farmers and other rice value-chain stakeholders in their home countries. These capacity-building efforts will help create a new generation of rice research and extension professionals, at least 30% of them women. They will profit from conducive working environments and appropriate budgetary provisions through increased government support and links with rice R&D projects and initiatives.

Through a priority-setting process involving consultation with stakeholders and rice experts, and information based on household surveys and national statistics that began in June 2008, the following seven research-for-development (R4D) Priority Areas (PAs) were identified:

1. Conserving rice genetic resources and providing smallholder farmers with climate-resilient rice varieties that are better adapted to production environments and consumer preferences

2. Improving rural livelihoods by closing yield gaps and through sustainable intensification and diversification of rice-based systems

3. Achieving socially acceptable expansion of rice-producing areas, while addressing environmental concerns

4. Creating market opportunities for smallholder farmers and processors by improving the quality and the competitiveness of locally produced rice and rice products

5. Facilitating the development of the rice value chain through improved technology targeting and evidence-based policy-making

6. Mobilizing co-investments and linking with development partners and the private sector to stimulate uptake of rice knowledge and technologies

7. Strengthening the capacities of national rice research and extension agents and rice value-chain actors.

Priority Areas 1–5 will result in new rice technologies that will make a positive, sustainable and lasting difference in the livelihoods of farmers and other rice value-chain actors. Through PA6, links will be established with large rice-sector development initiatives and the private sector to obtain co-investments to stimulate uptake of appropriate rice knowledge and technologies and to obtain feedback on technology performance. PA7 addresses the desperate lack of trained capacity across the rice value chain and in rice R&D in Africa. Across PAs, there is a need for working closely with women farmers, researchers, extension agents and agribusiness women in order to maximize efficiency, effectiveness and impact.

This rice R4D agenda will be implemented through a range of partnerships from strategic upstream research to linking with development partners to achieve impact on the ground. As an association of currently (November 2011) 24 African member states, and recognized by the African Union as the Center of Excellence for Rice Research in Africa, the Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice) is best placed to coordinate these rice R4D efforts across the continent over the next decade.

AfricaRice is positioning itself within the wider development and innovation context for sub-Saharan Africa as advocated by the CAADP of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) and will be contributing to Pillar IV, led by the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA). AfricaRice will strengthen its working relationships with FARA and the sub-regional research organizations (CORAF/WECARD, ASARECA, CCARDESA) as the implementing agency and catalyst for rice-based R4D in Africa. This will be facilitated by the fact that AfricaRice is an association of member states, and by nature a shared resource for member countries.

AfricaRice will act as both a developer and broker of rice knowledge, and will tap sources from within and outside the African continent, with each partner contributing to the rice R4D agenda according to its comparative advantage.

Most of this strategy (with the exception of PA3) will be implemented under the umbrella of the Global Rice Science Partnership (GRiSP), a CGIAR Research Program (CRP), with other CRPs contributing to specific PAs. AfricaRice is one of the architects of GRiSP, the first CRP to be approved by the Fund Council and the CGIAR Consortium Board (November 2010); it is led by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), based in the Philippines. AfricaRice is responsible for implementing GRiSP in Africa. Implementation will also occur through the CRP led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) on ‘Durable solutions for water scarcity and land degradation’ (PA3) and the CRP on ‘Climate change, agriculture and food security’ led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT: PA2 and PA3). It is expected that links will be established with the CRP on ‘Policies, institutions, and markets to strengthen assets and agricultural incomes for the poor’ led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI: PA5) and the CRP on ‘Integrated systems for the humid tropics’ led by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA: PA2).

Focusing on GRiSP, besides AfricaRice, IRRI, CIAT and the other co-architects — Centre de coopération international en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) and Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) — collaboration will be established with emerging strong national research systems, most notably those from Egypt (RTTC), China (CAAS), Brazil (EMBRAPA) and India. Advanced research institutes and universities in developed countries will also play a key role, mostly in conducting basic research that is beyond the capacities and comparative advantages of CGIAR centers and other partners. Collaboration will also be established with international organizations and centers such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), CABI and the International Center for Development-oriented Research in Agriculture (ICRA) in PA6 and PA7. AfricaRice will ensure — through its active role in the CRPs — that global knowledge is mobilized to respond to the challenges and opportunities in the seven PAs that form the rice R4D agenda for Africa.

Key partners to implement this strategy will be the NARS in Africa through their active involvement in research priority setting and implementation of R4D activities. Collaboration will be reinforced through the establishment of Task Forces, responding to certain priority areas. Task Forces are collective R4D efforts on critical thematic areas in the rice sector, based on the principles of sustainability and build up of critical mass at the national and regional levels. AfricaRice will facilitate these Task Forces. The following Task Forces have been or will be established:

• Rice Breeding Task Force (PA1)

• Rice Agronomy Task Force (PA2 and PA3)

• Rice Processing and Value Addition Task Force (PA4)

• Rice Mechanization Task Force (PA2, PA3, PA4)

• Rice Policy Task Force (PA5)

• Gender in Rice Research and Development Task Force (cross-cutting).

Collaboration will also be established with national rice centers of excellence within the framework of the World Bank-funded West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP) in Mali and the East Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (EAAPP) in Tanzania.

Task Force activities and much of the work in the CRPs will be thematic in nature, contributing to PAs 1–5, but research outputs will be integrated in ‘Rice Sector Development Hubs’ (‘good practice areas’) to achieve development outcomes and impact. Rice Sector Development Hubs involve large groups of farmers (1000–5000) and other value-chain actors, such as rice millers, input dealers and rice marketers. These partnerships will be testing grounds for new rice technologies and new institutional arrangements (contracting) between value-chain actors, and will follow a ‘reverse-research approach’, i.e. starting from the market. Partners will pursue a ‘proof of concept’ approach to rice value-chain development, productivity improvement and sustainable management of natural resources in rice-based systems.

The objective is to produce rice or rice-based products that respond to consumer preferences in urban and rural markets in quantities that are of interest to rice traders, who would usually import such products. Hubs will represent key rice ecologies and different market opportunities across sub-Saharan Africa and will be linked to major national or regional rice development efforts to facilitate broader uptake of rice knowledge and technologies. Care will be taken that women and youth are not marginalized, but on the contrary strengthened in the process of rice value-chain development. At least 30 Rice Sector Development Hubs will be established across Africa by 2020.

Civil society organizations (CSOs) such as Réseau des organisations paysannes & de producteurs de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (ROPPA) and East Africa Farmers’ Federation (EAFF), and major NGOs such as Catholic Relief Services (CRS), Sasakawa Global 2000 (SG2000) and Songhai will be involved in technology adaptation and wide-scale diffusion in and beyond the Rice Sector Development Hubs, and provide feedback to researchers and policy-makers on technology performance, and research and investment priorities. CSOs have a comparative advantage in operating at the grassroots level and are thus well placed to ensure full participation of farmers and other value-chain stakeholders.

Collaboration with the private sector may involve contributions to strategic and applied research in one of the PAs, or to ‘proof of concept’ work in the Rice Sector Development Hubs. This will include companies involved in farm inputs (seeds, farm machinery), credit provision, processing and marketing. Private companies will also serve as technology diffusion channels. This will require new formal research partnerships and contractual relationships between the public and private sectors, and due consideration of issues related to intellectual property rights.

Close collaboration will be established with regional forums and economic communities with a major interest in development of the rice sector. These include FARA at continental level, West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF/WECARD), Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) and Centre for Coordination of Agricultural Research and Development for Southern Africa (CCARDESA) at sub-regional level, and higher-level political bodies and development initiatives targeting food security and poverty, in particular the African Union (AU). Active linkages will be established with the regional economic communities (RECs) to assist with policy formulation and building of rice research and extension capacity, including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA), the East African Community (EAC) and the Economic Community of Central African States (CEMAC).

Links will also be established with international and regional development funds and banks and donors, in particular donors in the Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD, i.e. AfDB, IFAD, JICA and the World Bank), USAID, Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement (BOAD) and the World Food Programme (WFP). Many of these directly contribute as donors to the R&D activities that will be implemented under this strategy. Rice Sector Development Hubs will, as much as possible, be established in regions that benefit from large-scale bilateral or multilateral investments of these agencies in rice-sector development to build capacity and to facilitate transforming research outputs into development outcomes and impact.

Well-designed monitoring and evaluation systems will accompany the implementation of this strategy. Models and tools used for priority setting will be continuously maintained and improved using information from monitoring and evaluation systems, adoption studies and ex-post impact studies, enabling regular reviews of strategic choices made and turning this strategic plan into a living document.
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* All ‘benefit’ figures in this document are in comparison to the non-R&D ‘baseline’ level.